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Science 18 March 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5716, p. 1687
DOI: 10.1126/science.307.5716.1687d
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Figure 2 If the emission of greenhouse gases were to stop today, their associated global warming would continue because of the long lifetime of the gases in the atmosphere and thermal inertia of the ocean, and sea level rise would continue because of thermal expansion. Two modeling studies address these issues. Wigley (p. 1766) discusses the long-term climate warming commitment we have made already, as well as that which would occur under the still highly optimistic scenario of no further rise in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. Meehl et al. (p. 1769) quantify how much more global warming and sea level rise (just from thermal expansion) could be expected had greenhouse gas concentrations been frozen at their 2000 levels. Both studies conclude that even in these best-case scenarios, temperatures will rise by as much as 0.5°C and sea level will rise by tens of centimeters, not including any melting from ice sheets and glaciers.

CREDIT: MEEHL ET AL.




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